In a decisive victory, former President Donald Trump defeated incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, by an electoral college vote of 312 to 226. He is projected to win the popular vote by approximately 4 million votes and become the first Republican to do so since former President George W. Bush in 2004.

The election results are widely viewed as a mandate to fix the economy, stem the tide of illegal immigration, and take a new approach to foreign affairs with an “America first" agenda. 

Heading into election night, political pundits agreed that the race would come down to seven swing states that have largely decided the previous two presidential elections: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All these states ended up voting for Trump, buoyed by strong turnout from early voters that significantly cut into historic Democrat advantages.

Going into election day, rural voter turnout throughout the country was up approximately 8 points while urban turnout lagged by about the same margin. Furthermore, Trump successfully established a working-class coalition across racial lines, making significant inroads into a variety of demographic groups that have typically been much more aligned with the Democrat Party.

Compared to his 2020 vote share, exit polls showed that Trump gained 12 points among Black men, 9 points among Latino men and 10 points among voters aged 18-29. As a result, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the young male vote since President Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Beyond the White House, Republicans have flipped control of the U.S. Senate, netting a minimum of three seats. As the ballot counting process continues, Republicans have secured a 52-45 seat majority with three races too close to call in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Each of those seats are currently under Democrat control, so Republicans could still increase their margin by another seat or two.

Republicans went into election night holding a fragile majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans lead 211-200 with 24 races too close to call. Many of those are in California, which allows ballots to be received until Nov. 12 if they have been postmarked on or before Election Day.

Most pundits agree that Republicans will emerge with a House majority of less than five seats. If that scenario plays out, Republicans will have unified control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, just as they did when Trump was elected in 2016.

Stay tuned to the News & Views e-newsletter for further election analysis and what the outcome will mean for the insurance industry and, specifically, the independent agency system.

Nathan Riedel is Big “I" senior vice president of federal affairs.